Won't happen. I think the WARL would like it to happen by then and I think most progressive people within the game see it as a desirably step in the medium term. But as with everything it all comes down to money. The new TV deal and club financing structure that takes effect from 2007 and continues thru to the end 2012 is predicated on a 16 team competition. More clubs means everybody else gets a smaller share of the same pie. Given that only one club turned a profit last year even though it was the most successful season ever there's no way the clubs are going to accept a smaller share. Until the pie grows by enough to fund an additional club without affecting the existing clubs, there won't any new clubs, and the pie won't grow again until the next TV deal in 2013.Egan wrote:NRL plan to have a team here by 2010.
In the meantime the only alternative to a new club is re-allocation of an existing license (and the funding that supports it). For that to happen we have to assume an existing club collapses or voluntarily decides it needs to relocate sometime in the next four years. In the case of collapse we have to assume the NRL doesn't just decide to replace the club in the same area (eg. Auckland - probably true for any non Sydney side). Relocation of a non-Sydney side is almost certainly out of the question. As for relocation or collapse of a Sydney club you have to build the case for relocating to Perth ahead of the last remaining outpost of RL heartland without a club - the Central Coast. Given the proximity to their existing fan base and the area's RL pedigree, any club needing out of Sydney would be mad to pass up the opportunity while the option is still available. The first Sydney side to go is moving to the Central Coast, simple as that.
IMHO the next opportunity for Perth, Adelaide and Wellington will be a possible expansion of team numbers (to seventeen or eighteen) as part of the next television deal in 2013. Prior to that the league will be desperate to plug the Central Coast gap while avoiding having to hand out a new license in NSW.
Leigh.