:lol: Corio



Three. Sam Kekovich.

Polls an elections are all part of the grand modern day soap opera we all exist in. Plato and Aristotle both basically summmed up democacy as a degenerate form of government by, of (if not for) the stupid, uneducated masses. Today, George Bush is the leader of the free world - he probably hasn't read much Greek (or any other) philosophy. Roman politicians in the ancient Republic that appealed to the masses (the popularis faction) were mistrusted and condemned by those that mattered. Julius Caesar (for all his enourmous intellect, daring and sheer total genius) showed why they were right to mistrust them. In more modern times, Churchill observed that democracy was the worst possible form of government (though he did add a slight rejoiner "except for all the other types").

The more I'm getting to learn about so-called "global warming" and carbon trading schemes et al, the more I'm becoming convinced this is the greatest conjob of all time - ever. Some powerful people are going to become staggeringly wealthy out of it all - and I've never been one to follow conspiracy theories, but I'm smelling a massive rat on this issue.

All politicians in the major parties are 'popularists' - they are the only types that can possibly succeed in a democracy (a major , but inevitable flaw). Howard is a liar as bad as the rest of them. Rudd I don't know enough about, but he won't be very different from the rest. If the coalitian loses, the workplace laws will be the main reason, though lately, hubris has set in and rotting them from within.
Very true - polls have been wrong before - but not the betting odds.


Or another Sam Newman!

Global warming/climate change is a fascinating topic for the sociological study of science although I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a big study as the SSK ranks are overwhelmingly dominated by Marxist tree huggers. Heh... I guess that comment is an exercise in SSSK.... sociology of sociology of scientific knowledge!

I don't think you need to go for conspiracy theories to be cynical about the whole global warming issue. This whole thing is a perfect demonstration of the institutional structure of science and its ability to dismiss doubt as anti-rational.



Maybe not in Australia but I'm quite sure that they have been overseas. I'd have to look it up to be sure. I bought into the whole odds-are-better-predictors-then-polls thing around the last federal election but I'm doubtful now. Betting markets suffer the same basic flaw as opinion polls - making predictions about the behaviour of over 10 million people based upon highly limited information. Whilst odds factor in more information than polls, most of that information is little more than speculation and political 'common sense'.

Time to ask the tough questions

Which politican will react best (most TV-worthy) to a Chaser stunt?

With no Latham this will prove rather difficult - one of the most open fields in years. I can see a Kevin Rudd minder getting a bit feral. Bill Heffernan is good value but it seems so cliche. Bob Katter has been quiet in recent years but to my knowledge is untested against the Chaser.

Which party will make the most unfounded claim in the election campaign?

Global warming could come up again here (Bob Brown), Pauline Hanson's United Australia Party may raise the burning issue of "Christian Muslims," or an obscure Family First candidate with little media training may want to burn homosexuals/Muslims/prostitutes (delete as appropriate). My money will be on some trade union hack shooting his mouth off.

Post your thoughts or your own questions here.

I'm personally gunning for the libs claiming the displacement of water by illegal people smuggling vessels is the cause for sea level rise.

Austadiums poll > Newspoll

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/fina ... 755457a8af

Some really fascinating stuff there.

I've said it before and I'll say it again*:

scientific paradigms are determined as much by emotion and prejducice as a rational look at reliable evidence.











*not really

heffo's too easy to get a reaction from.....i reckon Christopher Pine may be a good laugh...snooty prick thinks he's funny....

Sheik al hilaly cirtainly reacted....

did you see the bit where he went to Lakembla mosque for round 2 of his boxing match with Sheik al hilaly, and he went in and got chock out of the flock!...

well I just earnt an hour's worth of govt sallary on that site. Thanks Cap'n Cheese

Jenny Williams has been endorsed as the Australian Democrats candidate for the Division of Hindmarsh. She is Fos Williams' daughter AND Mark Williams sister (something you cannot imply in Port Adelaide). As well as being related to Port Paaaaaaaa royalty, she was a world champion lacrosse player. Hindmarsh is very marginal so Dems preferences are important.

Early reports last night/this morning - Kevin Rudd leading 71 per cent in the Preferred PM vote

Surely botched

But hey i'm not complaining

KEVIN07

Libs will win it.

Newspoll methodology: pull dice out of arse, roll, Opposition by that much.

Last election Newspoll was on the money, it was AC Nielsen that was overstating the ALP's possible vote. Fark knows how good Galaxy is. Malcolm Mackerras = not so accurate. He's predicted the ALP and John Kerry at most recent elections.

centerbet is the best barometer of the election..and labour would win.

I like Smugmouths comments that he wouldnt have an election stuffing up the cricket tests...so the election would be before the mid of December....get them when their happy...
it will be one big holiday for the libs