Given the current opinion poll situation, I thought that may be interesting to start a thread on this topic. Are the coalition really going to get rolled?
What election date do you predict? What factors will influence your vote? Will the government make up any ground by election day?

My vote (provided the election is after September 3) is yet to be decided, although its increasingly likely that I will be voting Liberal, based purely on the fact that I like my local member (Julie Bishop) and am currently unable to see any solid, non-tested, non-populist policies from the Rudd opposition.

This is in no way watertight though, and could easily be changed by the time of the election (which I predict to be mid-to late October). Will be interested to see the way in which Labor policy develops, provided it actually does and Rudd does not ride the wave of "it's time" into government.

I'm very cautious about voting for a party led by someone the electorate knows little about (e.g. Latham... imagine if!). Furthermore, Rudd is yet to show anything that could prove to me that Labor will have any ability to handle the economy and not screw it over as they have in previous times.

What interests me if Labor wins, however, is the situation in the Senate. Given the 6 year terms, it is very likely that we could see a conservative majority in the upper house, which could be a very large pain in the side for a Labor government. Any thoughts on this?

Also, do you believe there will be as large a degree of minor party influence as the past few elections? I doubt it, seeing the degree to which they have been silenced in the wake of a conservative majority. This looks to me like an election that could prove to be a very bi-partisan one.

well if there is one thing more reliable than a news poll ..

its an Austadiums poll.....

what is their rectangular pitch policy?

Election will be in mid to late November BTW it will be as late as possible so they (libs) can spin and buy your vote.

you need 2 polls one for the house of reps and one for the senate

Julie Bishop i dont like her one bit...and in charge of Education....Australia used to have a good education policy... most people in Government reaped the benifits of FREE university..feckers....no student unions any more...farkers.....and a priority of federal spending towards private education..carnts....and that bizach is the face of it

how about the shootin and rootin party ..oh thats Pauline Hanson

Your tune has changed since December and that conversation with the Sydney noobs at that Melbourne pub

And yes I am voting for Coalition and if I vote Labor it will be due to local candidates, nothing to do with Rudd.

Stuff such as conservative economist is cringe worthy at best and I believe he has let us down from what he was before leadership...even Gillard has got ahead of herself from what she was like previously.





In some seats we could see the loss of traditional strongholds, eg Bennelong for the Liberals and Fremantle for Labor, the latter could go to greens with the humiliation and outrage of someone not being from Fremantle being the Labor Candidate. I think Greens will have a rise in voters with all of the Kyoto Protocol rhetoric, which makes me puke most days.



She has gotten on my nerves recently. Because of her anti-everything that is currently taught in Australian schools.



Factors - Whether Rudd becomes less cringe worthy, Decides not to ratify the piece of nothing in the Kyoto Protocol, Has real foreign policy objectives that make a difference in the world, also has more credible economic strategies.

Government making up any ground - Highly doubt it, Howard has got IR against him. He needs about 1000 boat people to be intercepted off the Australian coast for him to be re-elected, but even that has been hampered by the back bench.

Election Date - Who really cares, will laugh like crazy if its before September 3rd

Go into her electorate and you can understand why Private Education is being funded at such a strong level...

But its actually cheaper for the government to have students attend private education then it is public facilities, so I am not that against the funding of private schools. Although I will probably send any kids I have to a good public school (aka none in Mandurah or Rockingham).

I'm thinking an election in mid November. I doubt Howard will announce one before APEC and I doubt he'll call one for the Flemington Racing Carnvial so that leaves a little period in between of October 13, October 20 (Caulfield Cup Day) and October 27 (Cox Plate Day). After that it will be November 17, 24, etc. At this stage of the, "campaign," trying to figure out the date is the most fun I can have.

It looks like it will be an interesting contest this time and we've not had one for a few years. My election party may actually feature some engaging TV/radio beyond 6:45pm.

The Senate election is most interesting this year given the results of the past two polls means that the Senate may return to one where no party has absolute rule.

The Coalition will be tested for the first time in a while. I do not appreciate their arrogance at the moment. They question why they are behing in the polls when, "the economy is so good." It's as though AWB, David Hicks, the lack of a no-disadvantage test in Workchoices, attacking public schools, petrol prices, Cornelia Rau, climate change denial etc shouldn't resonate with the Australian electorate.

On the other hand Rudd's honeymoon period is truly over. Scandal after scandal keeps emerging and though he has handled them well so far, it will get to a stage where the public cast their vote against Rudd based on the ship of fools he commands. As a political party, the ALP have got to be one of the most shifty lot I have ever come across.

Loved The Chaser handing out free preselection to ABC employees on Wednesday. I swear Kerry O'Brien would've snatched one had the cameras not been rolling.



Said the childless taxpayer...

When there is an increase of parents wanting their kids going to private schools for some wanky reason, let them put their cold hard cash into the school and thus reduce the burden taxpayers have.

Education is still a State responsibility and the Labor governments have not done the best in all states, especially with the older schools.

Increase funding to public schools, will not be against it. But attacking the private school funding is of little basis.

who ever gives us money for the stadium, i couldn't care about the rest of it.

I don't want this topic to get off track but here goes...

I totally support private school funding on the basis that it does ease pressure on the public system. I also declare that I was educated at private schools throughout my primary and secondary education.

Traditionally, school funding has been the domain of the states but for over fifty years now we've seen Commonwealth involvement in school funding. it is no coincidence that in this era, states have not been as financially strong (thank you Uniform Tax Case). Leaving the states with the same funding responsibility and fewer funds does not make sense. In other words, while the current state of play exists between the Commonwealth and the States, we need a bit of Commonwealth involvement in school funding.

Above all of this, I support the notion that funding should follow need and we have seen examples over the years where private school "top-ups" from government have not followed need. This is my major beef. Funds have gone to institution that didn't need them and institutions that need funding miss out. Forget blame shifting, I want to see results.

I don't get to vote at this one. 6months out roughly.

I reckon everyone should write Larry Emdur on their vote forms - both of them.

If everyone voted for one person who was not listed on the sheets (ie, write the names on), would they get to be PM?

I'm not one for polls. I think you're better off looking at Centrebet for a result.

Also a lot of people don't admit to voting for the Coalition. Over the years the amount of times I have been around and everyone is staunch ALP and stuff the Libs but they always get up. It's those secret voters that count.

I've never been impressed with the caibre of recent ALP leaders. Latham was the only one that appealed to me but perhaps that's because he was a loose cannon.

As for the election date, I hope it's not when I'm in New Zealand as that means I'll miss out on a 'Don's Party' I have been promised an invite to.

Private schools.

f**k 'EM!

From memory just about everyone on here is a private school softcock so I can imagine most will be a sympathiser for more funding. And since we're making declarations I went to government schools both primary and secondary but was mooted to be siphoned off to a public school (Victorian old school term for private school just for you NSW types) which shares its name with a mediocre AFL team and has its junior campus in Melbourne, the senior boarding campus near an oil refinery and the Year 9 campus near a mountain which often is covered in snow at the age of 8. Maybe it's just as well as otherwise I would have turned out to be an A-Grade fuckwit.

I know when I flirted with joining the Young Liberals 10 years ago in my callow youth I was pro-private schools and advocated lots of funding for the reasons Egan has alluded to but maybe that's more because I wanted to shag a student from Boroondara, Stonnington or Bayside whilst she was in her blazer and tie.

Seriously however modern day hot_dogma is more along these lines that Jeffles advocates.



My case study I use is Camberwell Grammar. Everytime I pass the bloody thing they are doing building works, have demolished a building or are constructing some other edifice. And I note they are usually on the high list when it comes to hand outs.

I wonder if they have election booths in New Zealand as I have it on good authority that per capita there are just as many aussies in New Zealand as there are Kiwis in the country?



Im a swinging voter, I hate the Coalition like crazy, but I hate Rudd's Labor Party even more. I would prefer to have Howard in charge at the moment then Rudd whose populist politics I can not stand...

Plus the crucial aspect of my electoral decision is based on every single parties un-educated policy of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, if this is the greenhouse reduction policy that Australia is going to go under, I would rather vote for a party that actually realises the incompetency of this protocol. That is being recognised globally as failing, yet has yet to reach our shores of incompetent labor ministers.

I also blame David Suzuki - who should know better. I have voted Labor twice in my bi-election and state election, with the funds being put into our seat (recent 6.2 million dollar contribution for a direct linkage between Kwinana Freeway and Rockingham Town centre) the Liberals have noted the increasing marginality of our seat - Which is another thing that I think is smart political play.

I have also enjoyed Turnbull's recent hardline stance in Anchorage, despite me not being fully on the bandwagon, it does show it is willing to compromise the Japan/US/Australia Triate for what its population is generally interested in. And Rudd's plan for the Antarctic waters is the most heavy handed populist crap I have seen for a while.

Also I find the fact that Labor support the abolition of the petrol excise under Beazely, also makes me feel the contradictory evolution of the Labor Party view that it is greener then the Liberal Party, puts into question the grand plans by Mr Rudd.

My case study is the high school I went to (Frederick Irwin Anglican School) which has largely been built due to the Federal Government's low interest loan system for private schools (as much as I hate my high school). I remember my Deputy Principal speaking during a relief class and he was saying that at Public Schools the state government has to fund 100% of their education, at Private Schools it is 50% contribution each way.

If we want to continue to fund our growing age care bill that the state governments find increasingly hard to fund, with the growing age of the baby boomers. Then the Federal Government's relief is needed, of course there will be some mistakes in the system, but changing the policy just because there are personal grudges from the funding system that the Fed's have introduced, may cause more problems in other area's.

Most of the money that is contributed is for the lower fee paying private schools. Maybe there can be some legislation that is put through that if a school charges over 15,000 a year for education, that it is ineligible for federal government funding.

Although case in note is one of the most prestigious schools in Western Australia - Scotch College has march outs, but heck they can not afford to put air-conditioning in their rooms

I keep the bastards honest with pref's to ALP over the only ever so slightly more conservative of the two...

That makes two of us (about the only two in the country).