Boba Fett wrote:
The GWS fuckup is going exactly how I planned, spoke over many years. There were more calling wood fans than you could poke a stick at, the collingwood fans screamed louder. They have the same issues as Gold Coast United, just GWS is a massive financial output, with only a slim margin of success...
If TV viewerships don't increase dramatically and more particularly within western Sydney by the next tv deal, the liability of the club will see the shifting of it to Canberra. Particularly if the discrepancy between crowds in Canberra and crowds in Homebush becomes a 20-30 per cent difference...
FFS Egan... Do you try to be this stupid, or does it come naturally to you?
Nobody, I'll repeat that for you particularly, NOBODY, expected GWS to be a success in the first season. Everyone involved in the project (including the AFL) has a ten year MINIMUM plan for the team. Assuming the Giants can keep the bulk of this team together, they will start to win a lot of games in 4-5 years. Watch the crowds rise when that happens. I predict that by 2020, Giants crowds will average in the mid-high teens - which will be deemed acceptable by the powers that be.
Canberra will not have a standalone team in the AFL in my lifetime - it's just not big enough from a corporate support point of view. And that's essential in the AFL.
Well I'm glad your more optimistic than me.
The comments from people who are not going are invariably anti-cultural to GWS emmersion into that part of the country, crowds are worse nearly every week to what the AFL plans for. This is the issue for this 10 year plan people defend GWS have. The plan is already irrelevant because the starting point is 10-15% lower than they expected the starting crowds to be.
You also have some unusual expectation that the best players won't just leave the region because they come from Western Australia and South Australia in asserting that success will come to GWS. eg look at the dockers, the draft system doesn't ensure periods of success...
GWS is being seen as a cultural attack to many people in the region and in that way your expectation for crowd growth is stuck on the belief that cultural change is established over the ten year period. Will require factors outside of the AFL work for that to happen.
And Dibo, did not say nobody else predicted this...but many have been more optimistic in the level of f**k up this is for the AFL.
This is a hole to pump worthless money after worthless money and if the TV dollars don't rise over time because viewership doesn't increase...then the demands for a team that is not embraced by the community it represents lessens.
Canberra could easily fund the side through government sponsorship, particularly as the region wants to diversify its economy and grab a larger tourist segment of the region to take away it's onus away from the public sector in terms of economic drivers...different funding dynamics, but if not hosting the club, as AFL start to take away funding, market forces will force the club to move to regions that actually give a damn about the club.
I hope for the AFL I am proved wrong, but the Vietnam similarities I stated last year is still my view this year. When the AFL are constantly over-estimating the crowds that GWS should get than they are obviously going to have to re look at their ten year plan and the level of way they have to go to establish the club, which in my view becomes near on impossible currently.
The club has too many negative aspects hindering future growth IMO.